Back to basics The world of equity funds is becoming increasingly diverse and offers a bewildering array of strategies. How should one best navigate this and find the most suitable fund? By not forgetting the basics! A solid starting point is ascertained by defining a risk budget. Once determined you will find that you create a narrower and more manageable universe which still offers many interesting approaches to finding outperformance in equity markets. You can thus evaluate potential returns relative to the risk budget by using measures such as the Sharpe ratio. Some active managers add value by implementing high conviction ideas. This means finding someone who thoroughly knows their stocks, the stories behind them and the ‘right’ price for each stock. A relatively concentrated portfolio of around 40-60 ideas can allow for this degree of focus and allows utilisation of the best research ideas. From a risk perspective, the investor can perhaps seek some comfort from the idea that a stock story must be very strong before it makes it into or indeed is sold out of a relatively small portfolio.

A continued upward trend? In the face of the recent market correction in developed markets, investors may well be considering tempering their attitude towards risk and diversifying away from holding investments at the higher end of the risk spectrum. But should we be so hasty? If we stick with a range of equities from different geographies and sectors are there still opportunities to be found which may deliver upside potential? As we all know, emerging markets have delivered very attractive returns in the last few years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Free (EMF) Index returned over 30 per cent in both 2005 and 2006, compared to 10 and 20 per cent respectively for the MSCI World¹. Do the prospects for 2007 look as good?

Short-term fashion or sound investment? Private equity is currently under close scrutiny in the media. There are a variety of polarised views being expressed. Observers warn that the current surge of interest in private equity is causing ‘bubble amnesia’ and are cautioning investors to remember the dotcom sector of the late-1990s. They opine that there is a flood of money coming into private equity funds but too few deals to put the money to work (referred to as an ‘overhang’ – alongside lots of other intriguing jargon). From another perspective, trade unions offer sharp critiques of the industry, making allegations of short-termism and profiteering. UK workers are concerned that a move into private ownership means job losses and cuts to benefits. In the face of this controversy should the investor steer well clear?

Hedge funds develop deep roots Hedge funds are here to stay. Not only are larger numbers of institutional investors committing to this sector but hedge fund investment techniques are increasingly being adopted by traditional asset managers. Those who are cautious about hedge funds voice concerns about risk levels, lack of transparency, low liquidity levels and high fees, but the attractions of high returns and low correlations are highly persuasive. Therefore, it is important when selecting a manager to find one who offers education about the strategies employed and explains their investment approach clearly. For those investors who have taken the plunge, risk remains a key focus. However, rather than being a concern, they are actually employing hedge funds to mitigate the risk in their portfolio. In Mercer Consulting’s 2006 global survey on funds of hedge funds investing, investors who have made investments into hedge funds have done so to either provide: “an equal combination of portfolio risk reduction and return enhancement or primarily for risk reduction” In addition, having sampled these strategies, 53 per cent of respondents expected to increase their allocations over the next two years, with the median hedge fund allocation expected to increase from 5 per cent to 7.8 per cent over the same period. Thus what should we understand before considering an allocation?

Balance skill with market risk It is crucial in sub-advisory investment management to pick managers that can offer clients the highest likelihood of strong consistent returns. While great care is always taken over assessing managers’ philosophy and process (in order to build up an idea of potential future performance), less time is typically spent on ensuring that the manager has the opportunity to apply that skill in as many areas as possible. Last month, we addressed how relaxing the long-only constraint on equity portfolios can enable managers to fully express their negative, as well as positive, views on a stock. This may enable skilful managers to increase the target returns per unit of risk (indicated by a higher information ratio). This month we examine new approaches which can be taken in the global fixed income and currency market that provide investors with access to manager skill while seeking to mitigate market risks.

Loosening the constraints How do some equity fund managers make more money than others? The essential principle is easy to understand: buy the right stocks at the right time and you should generate outperformance. But how do managers structure these multiple stock bets to create equity portfolios with the ability to access the highest potential returns? Traditionally the approach has been to take fewer bigger bets, constructing a more concentrated portfolio. This means a fund with just the stocks the fund manager really likes – their high conviction ideas with the strongest upside potential. However, the concentrated nature of these portfolios also means that they experience high levels of volatility due to the increased level of risk. Is there an alternative which can be offered to meet the demand for strong fund performance but with potentially less risk exposure? Can’t high returns be created from a more diversified portfolio?

loosening the constraints Investment managers face many different constraints, usually in the form of investment guidelines. Some constraints are necessary and desirable, like having a risk budget for an investment mandate. Others are less desirable such as those imposed by the markets themselves. Perhaps the most restrictive of these various constraints is the no shorting rule, as it dramatically reduces a fund managers opportunity set for investment. It is likely that investors can realise a potentially large alpha benefit by relaxing the long-only constraint, i.e. no shorting in an equity portfolio. This benefit arises from the market-cap weightings of standard equity benchmarks and the long-only portfolio manager’s inability to profit from negative views on companies with low index weights.

Best in class Last month we discussed the challenge of building the correct asset allocation structure. This month we discuss how those assets can be managed to provide the best service for your clients. In the UK, over the last three to five years, open-architecture delivery of investment through third-party distribution of mutual funds and sub-advisory relationships has revolutionised access for investors to top-performing managers and funds. It provides access to one-stop shopping and enables more consistent and robust product due to the ability to change investment content. However, it is surprising that the associated benefits are still not universally accepted. The investment decision is crucial to the investor and eclipses the value of most other forms of advice given to clients – even taxation, given consistent reduction of tax benefits across investment products. Yet, despite the importance of this decision, investment remains a small part of the advice given to clients, with the majority of time spent on advising which wrapper to use – be it an Isa, bond or unit trust rather than which fund can best meet their investment needs.