David Bulteel

“It seems likely that the current moderation in global growth is a mid-cycle slowdown, not the start of a major downturn. The oil price is unpredictable, but should remain below last summer’s levels, thus relieving some inflationary pressure. Once the current doubts over growth have been resolved, we expect further equity gains as corporate profits are still increasing, dividend growth is strong and interest rates seem unlikely to rise materially. Bonds appear fair value but slower economic growth could lead to poorer performance from corporate bonds, where the payment for the extra risk is unusually low.”