Giovanni Becchere
Head of Multi-Assets, ABN AMRO Investment Solutions. Based in: Paris, France
“The weakness in the global economy is expected to continue and could lead to weakness in labour markets. Nevertheless there are some economic drivers that appear to be improving, and if the trade conflict between US and China does not escalate there could be a strong, positive economic response. There is also evidence that the Chinese stimulus is beginning to have an effect and that the cuts by the Fed have benefited certain segments. In this context we keep our view unchanged with a preference for equities versus fixed income and no cash in portfolio.”
Luca Dal Mas
Senior fund analyst, Aviva Investors. Based in: London, UK
“November was another positive month for developed equity and credit markets, while US and German government bond yields were relatively unchanged. The more constructive tone emanating from China and the US regarding the trade dispute, the ongoing monetary stimulus from global central banks and the moderately improved tone to activity data in recent months have clearly provided support. In our portfolio we have switched the allocation from Invesco European Income to a passive exposure due to the lead PM moving to a different role.”
Kelly Prior
Investment Manager in the Multi-manager team, BMO Global Asset Management. Based in: London, UK
“A gentle trickle of supportive economic news kept equities moving upwards in November with the US market hitting all-time highs intra-month, despite a lack of resolution to the China-US trade negotiations. Consumers remain the key driver to economic growth, as is the stability of the service sector against a general slowing trend from manufacturing. The US market led the pack in the month with the Findlay Park American fund reflecting the fortunes of its underlying market. The Merian UK Specialist Equity fund was the worst performer.”
Ian Crispo
Head of fund selection, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management. Based in: London, UK
“The macroeconomic picture is showing signs of stabilisation with slower global growth and cautious inflation, coupled with sentiment barometers rising from a low level and purchasing managers’ indices stabilising. We increased our allocation to equities back to neutral, while trimming our investment grade and liquidity positioning. The portfolio did well, with most managers ending in positive territory. Our EMD manager suffered due to its Ecuador position, and gold sold off which affected our ETC in that space.”
Silvia Tenconi
Multimanager Investments & Unit Linked, Eurizon Capital SGR. Based in: Milan, Italy
“In November, the performance of the portfolio was positive. Top contributors were the global, US and European equity funds. Emerging markets, Japanese and Asian equity funds all yielded positive results, albeit lower. Geopolitical risk is abating at the margin, liquidity in the financial system is abundant and government bonds are not yet an interesting investment. We keep our allocation unchanged, favouring equities, high yield and cash.”
Richard Troue
Fund Manager, Hargreaves Lansdown Fund Managers. Based in: Bristol, UK
“At this time of year it’s popular to make predictions for the year ahead. But, as the saying goes, ‘prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future’. I’ve got no special insight into the outcome of the UK general election, Brexit, or trade wars. But the UK is an out of favour market with attractive yield, the US is home to some of the world’s best companies and emerging markets are becoming more prosperous. It seems sensible to have these at the core of an equity portfolio. And with bond yields around record lows a conservative approach to interest rate risk still seems appropriate.”
Bernard Aybran
CIO Multi-management, Invesco. Based in: Paris, France
“The balanced portfolio has been modestly amended with equity trimmed and the proceeds reinvested in bonds. Though the bond allocation has been increased through an ETF, it is one of the few actively managed ETFs, particularly appropriate in an investment grade universe where yield is scarce and bond picking mishaps can cost a precious handful of basis points. A mega cap US equity index has been increased through a passive ETF as the year-end window dressing exercise might favour the outperformers of the previous months.”
Paul Hookway,
Senior Fund Analyst, Kleinwort Hambros. Based in: London, UK
“For several months our indicators have been telling us to increase risk. Despite current uncertainties, fundamentals remain supportive, creating an attractive opportunity to do this. The tough question was where we took the capital from. Initially we looked at reducing alternatives, but as a group they continue to offer a high level of diversification. Instead, we decided to reduce our fixed income allocation by reducing Invesco Sterling Bond and H20 Multi Aggregate after their strong run year to date. We added risk by adding 4 per cent to US Equities, spread across our existing investments.”
Antti Saari
Chief Investment Strategist, Nordea investments. Based in: Copenhagen, Denmark
“November was a strong month for risky assets as overly pessimistic investors reset their beliefs towards a more sanguine economic outlook. The easy part of the rally is likely over as investor positioning is now more in line with economic data. We also think the manufacturing outlook has room to improve further and support equities, particularly as many low-risk bonds yield next to nothing. Moreover the probabilities of the worst outcomes from both the US-China trade war as well as Brexit have declined. We keep equities overweight in our recommendations.”
